[1]杨小君,许良,王丰效.我国学生营养健康状况未来5年发展趋势预测[J].第三军医大学学报,2011,33(10):1056-1060.
 Yang Xiaojun,Xu Liang,Wang Fengxiao.Prediction of nutrition and health condition trends of students in China[J].J Third Mil Med Univ,2011,33(10):1056-1060.
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《第三军医大学学报》[ISSN:1000-5404/CN:51-1095/R]

卷:
33卷
期数:
2011年第10期
页码:
1056-1060
栏目:
论著
出版日期:
2011-05-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Prediction of nutrition and health condition trends of students in China
作者:
杨小君许良王丰效
重庆师范大学体育学院;陕西理工学院数学系
Author(s):
Yang Xiaojun Xu Liang Wang Fengxiao
College of Physical Education, Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing,400047;Department of Mathematics Shannxi University of Technology, Hanzhong,Shaanxi Province, 723000,China
关键词:
轻度营养不良中度以上营养不良超重肥胖灰色预测中国学生
Keywords:
mild malnutrition moderate malnutrition overweight obesity grey prediction Chinese students
分类号:
R153.2;G525.5;R151.42
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
目的    预测未来5年全国学生营养健康状况的发展趋势。    方法    基于1985、1995、2000、2005年4次全国学生体质调研有关营养检测指标的监测数据,运用多变量灰色预测模型方法,建立全国学生营养不良、超重和肥胖的数学预测模型及其预测值。    结果    轻度营养不良2010、2015年的最大检出率,城市男生(城男)将达4.25%和4.33%,城市女生(城女)达7.37%和6.65%,乡村男生(乡男)达5.07%和6.29%,乡村女生(乡女)达7.37%和7.88%;中度以上营养不良2010、2015年最大检出率,城男达0.18%和0.20%,城女达0.68%和0.70%,乡男达0.20%和0.23%,乡女分别达0.72%和0.72%;超重2010、2015年的最大检出率,城男达22.89%和31.86%,城女达16.01%和20.09%,乡男达15.31%和22.42%,乡女达11.42%和14.90%;肥胖2010、2015年的最大检出率,城男达19.85%和26.02%,城女达11.18%和15.49%,乡男达10.91%和18.36%,乡女达6.13%和9.55%。13~15岁和16~18岁是未来5年我国学生营养不良的重点干预群体,10~12岁学生是超重和肥胖的重点干预群体;轻度营养不良学生群体有望下降,城市学生下降幅度较明显于农村学生;中度以上营养不良未来增降不明显,城乡差距不显著且水平基本持平。    结论    未来5年超重、肥胖学生群体呈递增态势,城市上升幅度高于农村,男生高于女生,肥胖成为未来5年威胁我国学生健康的重大营养问题,应引起全社会的高度重视与关注。
Abstract:
Objective    To predict the nutrition and health condition trends of students in China in the next decade.     Methods    Based on the nutrient index-related monitoring data derived from the series of the Chinese National Surveillance on Students’ Constitution and Health accomplished in 1985, 1995, 2000, and 2005, a multi-variable gray predication model was used to build a mathematic predication model for malnutrition, overweight, and obesity of students in China.     Results    In 2010 and 2015, the maximum mild malnutrition rates of urban male students, urban female students, rural male students, and rural female students were 4.25% and 4.33%, 7.37% and 6.65%, 5.07% and 6.29%, and 7.37% and 7.88%, respectively; the maximum moderate/severe malnutrition rates 0.18% and 0.20%, 0.68% and 0.70%, 0.20% and 0.23%, and 0.72% and 0.72%, respectively; the maximum overweight rates 22.89% and 31.86%, 16.01% and 20.09%, 15.31% and 22.42%, and 11.42% and 14.90%, respectively; and the maximum obesity rates 19.85% and 26.02%, 11.18% and 15.49%, 10.91% and 18.36%, and 6.13% and 9.55%, respectively.     Conclusion    The 13- to 15-year-old and 16- to 18-year-old students will constitute the important intervention population of malnutrition in the future. The 10- to 12-year-old students will constitute the important intervention populations of overweight and obesity in the future. The mild malnutrition population will probably decrease in the future, more significantly in the urban students than in the rural students. The moderate/severe malnutrition population will not have significant decrease or increase trend in the future, with no remarkable difference between the urban students and the rural students. In the future, the overweight and obesity populations will increase, more significantly in the urban students than in the rural students and more significantly in the male students than in the female students. Obesity will materially imperil the health of the students in China in the future.

参考文献/References:

杨小君, 许良, 王丰效. 我国学生营养健康状况未来5年发展趋势预测[J].第三军医大学学报,2011,33(10):1056-1060.

更新日期/Last Update: 2011-05-12