[1]陈虹汝,周亮,李高明,等.基于气象因素的手足口病发病风险预测模型[J].第三军医大学学报,2017,39(12):1292-1297.
 Chen Hongru,Zhou Liang,Li Gaoming,et al.Development of a risk prediction model for handfootmouth disease based on meteorological factors[J].J Third Mil Med Univ,2017,39(12):1292-1297.
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基于气象因素的手足口病发病风险预测模型(/HTML )
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《第三军医大学学报》[ISSN:1000-5404/CN:51-1095/R]

卷:
39卷
期数:
2017年第12期
页码:
1292-1297
栏目:
公共卫生与预防医学
出版日期:
2017-06-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Development of a risk prediction model for handfootmouth disease based on meteorological factors
作者:
陈虹汝周亮李高明易大莉易东刘岭
第三军医大学军事预防医学院卫生统计学教研室
Author(s):
Chen Hongru Zhou Liang Li Gaoming Yi Dali Yi Dong Liu Ling

Department of Heath Statistics, College of Military Preventive Medicine, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, 40038, China

关键词:
手足口病气象因素预测模型
Keywords:
hand-foot-mouth diseasemeteorological factors risk prediction model
分类号:
P42; R195.4; R512.5
文献标志码:
A
摘要:

目的        探讨我国手足口病发病与气象因素的关系,建立基于气象因素的手足口病发病风险预测模型。方法        收集2010-2014年全国31个省市手足口病月发病率资料和当地同期气象资料;利用Spearman相关分析、Logistic回归分析筛选影响手足口病发病的气象危险因素;应用哈佛疾病风险指数模型建立预测模型;采用ROC曲线下面积评价模型优劣。结果          影响手足口病高发的气象危险因素分别为月平均气温12~22 ℃(OR=13.922)、月平均气温大于22 ℃(OR=25.932)、标准大气压地区(OR=7.953)、月降水量大于100 mm(OR=1.439)及月平均湿度大于70%(OR=1.597)。根据以上气象因素建立手足口病发病风险预测模型,并绘制风险评估图,模型的ROC曲线下面积为0.810。结论          气象因素对手足口病的发生、发展过程存在影响;成功建立了基于气象因素的手足口病发病风险预测模型。

Abstract:

Objective        To explore the relationship between the outbreak of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD)and meteorological factors in China and develop a risk prediction model for HFMD. Methods          The data of monthly HFMD incidences in 31provinces(cities) and the local meteorological data from 2010 to 2014 were collected. Spearman correlation analysis and logistic regression were used to identify the meteorological risk factors for HFMD, and the risk prediction model incorporating these meteorological variables was developed based on Harvard disease risk index model. The performance of this model in predicting the risk of HFMD was assessed using the area under the ROC curve. Results          The meteorological risk factors for HFMD includes the monthly average temperature of 12 to 22℃(OR=13.922), monthly average temperature above 22 ℃(OR=25.932), a region with a normal atmospheric pressure(OR=7.953), monthly rainfall above 100 mm(OR=1.439) and monthly average humidity above 70%(OR=1.597). The risk prediction model for HFMD established using these meteorological variables had an area under the ROC curve of 0.810. Conclusion         Meteorological factors can influence the risk of HFMD, and this risk prediction model may provide assistance in establishing an early warning system for HFMD outbreak and can have practical values in HFMD prevention and control.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2017-06-28